Interesting coincidence that this year’s Primary Election falls on March 15th. The Ides of March are considered ominous, a risky date with dark overtones of loss and death.
At first glance, it would seem the Ides aren’t particularly risky for most of the candidates in City Politics. Most are running unopposed for their Party’s nomination. Those who have an opponent are unlikely to work up much of a sweat. Does anyone really believe that Michael Hood, lately of the Springfield Township Massacre, has a chance to beat sitting Commissioner Pete Gerken for the nod of the Lucas County Democratic Party? Probably not even Hood himself.
Ah, but don’t get too complacent, lads and lassies. Look behind the obvious, and the Ides of March carry a very great risk for some in City Politics beyond the results. For some, it is a referendum on their very future. To the following we say, Beware the Ides of March!
Mike Bell. Mikey P. has had quite a run of failure in the past two years. First he lost as an incumbent to upstart D. Mike Collins in the twenty thirteen election for mayor of Toledo. Then he lost the special election to replace Mayor Collins in twenty fifteen. There’s a saying in baseball and City Politics. Three strikes and you’re out.
That means Bell’s last hurrah could be his run at Gerken for a seat on the county commission. The final results won’t be tabulated until the head-to-head in November, and Bell is unopposed for the Republican nomination to run against Gerken.
Nevertheless, the Primary could be an ominous portend for ol’ Bellbottoms. See, he was a lifelong D who became a nominal Independent to run for mayor. Now he’s made the final leap, becoming a registered Republican to run against Gerken. Will this Democrat, a liberal on social matters who pushed benefits for same-sex couples while mayor, have a home in the Lucas County Republican Party?
The Primary could be telling. He’s unopposed, thus will win, of course. But how many Republican primary voters, the die-hard party faithful, will vote for the obviously self-serving Democrat? Watch for the fall-off in total votes from those who cast a vote for President on the Republican ballot, and those who vote for Bell. A significant difference could mean that Republican voters are sour on the former mayor, and spell real trouble for Mikey P in the GOP.
Mayor Paula Hicks Hudson. PHH isn’t on the ballot. But her first major controversial initiative is. Issue 2 asks Toledo voters to raise city income taxes to fix residential streets and to balance the general fund budget.
The mayor is running a low-key, low-capital campaign, talking to voters directly at the grassroots. It’s the sort of campaign she ran to win the mayor’s seat last year, relying heavily on door-to-door and direct phone calls. Will it work for Issue 2?
We’ll know on the Ides of March. And she should be very worried. Because it is not only a referendum on her leadership and trustworthiness. It is also a referendum on the effectiveness of her campaign style in the long run.
If Issue 2 passes, it will be a major success for PHH and show her strength among voters. In that event, the mayor should be sitting pretty to retain her seat next year. If Issue 2 fails, her weakness will be exposed. Watch for the long knives to come out shortly thereafter.
The Lucas County Democratic Party. This is a big year for the Dems. They proved to be a juggernaut in twenty fifteen, driving the steamroller that carried PHH to mayoral victory. Can the LC Dems sustain that momentum?
The local Republicans have many more candidates for Central Committee on the ballot, representing a much larger portion of Lucas County. Historically, the Dems have had a much greater grassroots organization than the GOP. Not so anymore. Did the local Dems put all their eggs into the mayoral basket, and lose sight of organizing precinct by precinct?
The vote totals will tell the tale. There are more races in more precincts for the GOP. But does that translate into more people pulling a Republican ballot? Ultimately, the totals will tell the relative strength of each party at the polls, a significant organizing tool for the November General Election.
There you have it, folks. Beware! Who will survive, and who will fall?
The Ides of March will reveal all!